心理技术与应用 ›› 2025, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (3): 166-176.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

风险决策中社会距离影响群体成员有关风险的先验信念

  

  1. 上海外国语大学国际工商管理学院
  • 收稿日期:2024-12-20 出版日期:2025-03-17 发布日期:2025-03-17

The Influence of Social Distance on Group Members' Prior Beliefs About Risk in Risky Decision-Making

  1. School of Business and Management, Shanghai International Studies University
  • Received:2024-12-20 Online:2025-03-17 Published:2025-03-17

摘要:

为深入探究群体决策中个体风险决策的变化及其认知基础,进而优化群体决策效能,采用仿真气球冒险任务,通过对比不同决策模式(个体决策、共同决策、轮流决策)及不同社会距离群组条件下个体的连续风险决策,并利用强化学习的贝叶斯模型构建决策过程模型。结果显示,相较于个人决策,在双人决策时,个体表现出更高的冒险性。然而,贝叶斯模型拟合揭示,这并非是个体的风险偏好提升,而是个体对气球不会破裂的先验信念有所增强,并且在近社会距离组中,这种先验信念的增加更为显著。

Abstract:

To deeply explore the variations in individual risk-taking behavior within group decisions and their cognitive foundations, and subsequently optimize group decision-making effectiveness, this study employs the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART). It compares individuals' sequential risk decisions across different decision-making modes (individual decision-making, joint decision-making, and alternating decision-making) and under varying social distance group conditions. Furthermore, a Bayesian model of reinforcement learning is utilized to construct a model of the decision-making process. The research reveals that, when using traditional behavioral indicators (average number of balloon pumps), compared to individual decision-making, individuals exhibit more risky behavior when decision-making involves two people. However, Bayesian model fitting reveals that this is not due to an increase in individual risk preference but rather an enhancement in their prior belief that the balloon will not burst. Moreover, this increase in prior belief is more pronounced in groups with close social distances.

No related articles found!
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] 辛自强, 张红川, 孙铃, 于泳红, 辛志勇. 财经素养的内涵与三元结构[J]. 心理技术与应用, 2018, 6(8): 450 -458 .
[2] 孙 铃, 宋晓星, 周战强, 孟祥轶, 辛自强. 财经知识的概念、结构和测量[J]. 心理技术与应用, 2018, 6(8): 459 -464 .
[3] 张红川, 苏 凇, 吕杰妤, 张 梅, 辛自强. 基于理性决策的财经能力:概念、结构与测量[J]. 心理技术与应用, 2018, 6(8): 465 -471 .
[4] 张晶晶, 余真真, 田 浩. 亲环境行为的情理整合模型:生态情感卷入的作用[J]. 心理技术与应用, 2018, 6(8): 484 -492 .
[5] 余习德, 鲁 成, 高定国. 时间流逝感与时间观、人格之间的关系研究[J]. 心理技术与应用, 2018, 6(8): 493 -502 .
[6] 韦 晓, 兰继军. 近10年我国心理学研究现状与趋势分析——以第14~19届全国心理学大会论文分布为例[J]. 心理技术与应用, 2018, 6(8): 503 -512 .
[7] 韩 璞, 张 凤, 雷秀雅. 不同自我权力感知儿童的学校动力绘画特征[J]. 心理技术与应用, 2018, 6(9): 522 -527 .
[8] 刘洋, 刘筱萌, 李爽怡, 万造君, 苑媛. 家长式领导对工作满意度的影响:上下级关系的中介作用[J]. 心理技术与应用, 2018, 6(9): 513 -521 .
[9] 陈必忠. 社交网站积极自我呈现与主观幸福感:多重中介模型[J]. 心理技术与应用, 2018, 6(9): 528 -536 .
[10] 胡锦慧, 辛 聪, 陈幼贞. 编码方式和线索显著性对前瞻记忆的影响[J]. 心理技术与应用, 2018, 6(9): 537 -542 .